New estimates and studies show that the actual death rate from COVID-19 is probably much lower than originally assumed. A study by Stanford professor Ioannidis published by the WHO confirms this finding.
WHO experts spoke at their major press conference a few days ago that around 10 percent of the world’s population may be infected, that would be around 780 million people. Around 1 million of them died of or with the coronavirus. This corresponds to a death rate of roughly 0.14 percent (see the report OffGuardian). This means that the death rate is around 24 times lower than the WHO estimated in the spring. At that time there was still talk of 3-4 percent.
A large meta-study by John PA Ioannidis, Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology at Stanford University, confirms that the death rate is lower than announced by the WHO in the spring. Professor Ioannidis has evaluated 61 studies in which it was examined how many people in a country or a certain population group have antibodies against Sars-CoV-2 in their blood.
Ioannidis calculated an average infection mortality across 51 locations. It came to a value of 0.27 percent, which had to be corrected again to 0.23 percent. In regions with fewer than 118 deaths per million people, the death rate was only 0.09 percent. There, where 118 to 500 Covid-19 deaths per million inhabitants were counted, it was 0.20 percent. In people under 70, the average rate was only 0.05 percent.
That is a little more than 0.14 percent, as the rough estimates show, assuming high infection rates in the Third World and assuming that around 780 million people worldwide have been infected. But it is significantly less than the 3-4 percent that the WHO assumed in the spring. Infection Prevention and Control Canada assumes a mortality rate of around 2 percent in Canada and is therefore likely to be far above the actual number.